Probability Modeling

Aegis specializes in probability modeling, employing a variety of cutting-edge and proprietary methods to create probability models customized to our clients’ needs.  Our probability modeling work includes:

• Developing a method for positive identification of shotgun shell evidence using a mixture of pellet alloys, which resulted in opening a high-profile cold murder case.¹

• Developing a Markov model of internet file sharing demonstrating repeat infringements of music copyrights by internet service provider (ISP) customers, resulting in first loss by an ISP of safe harbor provisions of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA).²

• Designing and testing random number selections for the Colorado Lottery.

• Solving complex casino game probabilities that had kept a game from being marketed.  The game was initially released with payoffs computed using incorrect probabilities that had caused a run on the bank when a player discovered the erroneous probabilities.

¹ Murder of Sid Wells by Thayne Smika, Case No. P83-7907, prosecuted in Boulder, Colorado. 

² BMG Rights Mgmt. (US) LLC v. Cox Communs., Inc., No. 1:14-cv-16112015, U.S. Dist. LEXIS 161091 (E.D. Va. Dec. 1, 2015).